Policy Backgrounders

Ukraine Update

April 05, 2024

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™

While the ground war in Ukraine is essentially at a stalemate as the muddy season, in which ground fighting is difficult, approaches, there has been considerable activity in the war in the air and in the Black Sea, in both Europe and the United States planning for future military aid to Ukraine, and in diplomacy which may eventually set a path for future talks, depending on the military situation.

• The air war, including missile and drone attacks on civilian and military infrastructure, remains an essential theater of operations.
• As Ukraine has been forced into a more defensive posture with shortages of materiel, attitudes in Europe towards Russia are hardening, with greater focus on defense production.
• Both Europe and the US are actively considering use of at least the proceeds from frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine.
• The US House of Representatives will likely vote on some form of aid for Ukraine (in addition to Israel and the Indo-Pacific) after the Congressional Easter recess, but the path to enactment remains difficult.
• There has been a flurry of recent diplomacy connected with the war, but neither Russia nor Ukraine is reportedly ready to begin talks.