Global Economy Briefs

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®

• Rising inflation will likely limit how much consumers will be able to spend on goods and services, leading to significant deceleration in economic growth this year.
• Declines in discretionary spending (such as restaurants) among rising goods purchases likely highlight stockpiling behaviors on the part of consumers.
• Stockpiling ahead of potential tariff implementation on a wide range of consumer goods could lead to a pullback in goods spending later this year, once and if the touted tariffs take effect.
• A sharp increase in personal income growth (both in nominal and real terms) in February was likely misleading, as it was driven by a one-off rise in government transfer receipts. We expect a weak reading in March as the impact reverses.
• A pick-up in core PCE price inflation is likely just a precursor to sharper increases in the coming months as tariffs make th