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For Release 9:30 AM ET, November 14, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France declined by 0.3% in September 2024 to 108.8 (2016=100), reversing a 0.3% increase in the prior month. The LEI for France contracted by 2.0% over the six-month period between March and September 2024, a less than the 2.4% decline between September 2023 and March 2024.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France remained unchanged at 111.3 (2016=100) in September 2024, after rising by 0.1% in August. The CEI for France progressed by 0.1% over the six-month period from March to September 2024, after growing by 0.4% over the previous six-month period.
“The France LEI declined in September, erasing the previous month’s gain,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “In the month, industrial components such as production expectations and industrial new orders weakened again, after a temporary increase in August. The six-month growth rate of the France LEI, while improved compared to a few months ago, remained negative suggesting headwinds to economic growth ahead. While GDP growth surprised on the upside in the third quarter of 2024, driven by the one-off impact of the Summer Olympics games, it is likely to slow substantially in the fourth quarter. The Conference Board currently expects France GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and slow to 1.0% in 2025.”
The next release is scheduled for Monday, December 16, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.
NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the diffusion index lies below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −2.1 percent. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around twelve months.
The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for France are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for France are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
June’s decline in the LEI was largely contained to negative contributions from the financial components
With graph and summary table
November 14, 2024
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