Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.5 percent in February 2023 to 110.6 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in January. However, the LEI grew by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, a reversal from 3.4 percent decline over the six-month period from February to August 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.5 percent in February 2023 to 111.3 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in January. The CEI grew by 1.5 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, slightly slower than the 2.0 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Mexico fell in February, reversing a small gain in January,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst at The Conference Board. “Nearly all components contributed negatively to the LEI, save for the peso/USD exchange rate. The recent movements in the LEI still suggest that the future growth trajectory is uncertain. Slower global growth and a potential recession in the US may continue to weigh on growth for Mexico. The Conference Board projects a year-over-year GDP growth rate of 1.6 percent in 2023, down from 3.1 percent in 2022.”

The Mexico LEI fell in February while the CEI increased

Last month’s declines in the LEI were led by both financial and non-financial components 

Mexico LEI growth continues to be negative, signaling that recent weakening in GDP may persist in near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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