After weeks of growth following the phased opening of businesses, the US economy is showing signs of slowing down. Many states are experiencing an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and some have recently reimplemented restrictions, that had been lifted in May-June.

There is a growing consensus that the share of remote workers will remain well above pre-pandemic rates. But in what types of jobs is this most likely to happen? We project a large increase in remote-working rates for clerical and administrative office jobs, a labor market segment which had relatively low remote-work rates in the pre-pandemic era.

Early signs from the HWOL data series suggest small employers are leading the ramp up in hiring as the economy begins to reopen.

Some of the catastrophic economic and labor market statistics from recent weeks are actually not that important. The bigger question is what happens when the economy opens. While businesses will reopen and millions will return to work, recovery is unlikely to be complete for quite a while. We discuss which consumption categories will see the biggest drop in business during the (slow) recovery.

In the current economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, employers are laying off millions of workers and significantly cutting back on hiring new employees. Many businesses are no longer able to operate, or their operations have been limited, resulting in less demand for workers. The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) data series, collects millions of online job ads in real-time and classifies them by occupation, industry and location. This allows us to see which