LEI for South Korea Improved in March

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 0.3 percent in March 2023 to 106.4 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.4 percent in February. The LEI improved by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, a partial reversal from the 2.3 percent decrease from March to September 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased 1.2 percent in March 2023 to 107.1 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.9 percent in February. However, the CEI declined by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, following a decline of 0.6 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea increased again in March, its third consecutive month of improvement,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “The LEI for South Korea suggests that future growth prospects for Korea may continue to improve, but the recent trajectory is volatile. Most components, both financial and non-financial, contributed positively to the index this month except for stock prices and private construction orders. The end of zero-COVID policies in China may continue to boost the outlook for Korea. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2023.”

The Korea LEI and CEI both improved in March

Four out of six components contributed positively to the LEI in February

The LEI trajectory signals potentially improving future growth prospects for Korea, but risks to the outlook remain

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

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