Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, December 10, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany improved slightly by 0.1% in October 2024 to 87.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2% in September, according to revised data. Nevertheless, over the six-month period between April and October 2024, the LEI for Germany contracted by 0.9%, a moderate improvement from the 1.3% decline over the previous six-month period, between October 2023 and April 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany declined by 0.3% in October 2024 to 103.6 (2016=100), following no change in September. The CEI for Germany contracted by 0.6% from April to October 2024, a negative turn, after a 0.2% gain over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Germany improved slightly in October, recovering for a second consecutive month from multi-year lows,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Of the components, only the negative yield spread weighed on the index. Consumer confidence, driven by expectations of stronger income and stock prices led the October increase. However, new orders for investment goods that supported the Index in recent months seemed to have lost momentum. While the stabilizing pace of decline in the Index on a six-month basis suggests that headwinds may lessen in the near term, the October data does not yet reflect political and trade uncertainty that increased in November, following the collapse of the governing coalition and tariffs announcements by the incoming US administration. The Conference Board currently expects the German economy to contract by 0.1% in 2024, but to slightly recover to 0.7% growth in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, January 21, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.