Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.5% to 108.5 (2016=100) in October 2024, more than reversing a 0.3% increase in September. Over the six-month period between April and October 2024, the LEI slowed to 0.8% growth from 2.1% over the previous six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea ticked up by 0.1% to 108.0 (2016=100) in October 2024 following a 0.2% increase in September. Overall, the CEI increased by 0.3% over the six-month period between April and October 2024, a growth rate similar to the previous six-month period.

“The South Korea LEI decreased in October, driven by large negative contributions from the inventory-to-shipment index, private construction orders, and to a much lesser extent, the bonds yield.” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “In the past few months, manufacturing inventories and shipments have been very volatile, especially for tech products, including semiconductors. As the semiconductor industry make up approximately 20% of South Korean exports, uncertainties in the sector posed by potential US tariffs and Chinese competition may create downward pressure on economic growth. Hence, the government announced plans to support the industry in the coming year, offering low-interest loans and proposing subsidy legislation. Moreover, the Bank of Korea cut rates once again in November to further mitigate downside risks. Overall, softening LEI’s growth continued to indicate slower economic expansion going forward. However, supporting policies may lessen the challenges ahead for Korea’s economy.”

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, January 9th, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.