Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, December 12, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the United Kingdom remained unchanged in October 2024 at 75.3 (2016=100), the same level as in September and August. The LEI for the UK contracted by 0.5% over the six-month period between April and October 2024, after contracting by 0.7% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom was also unchanged in October 2024 at 105.6 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.1% in September. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 1.1% over the six-month period between April and October 2024, a significant acceleration of the 0.1% rise over the previous six-month period, from October 2023 to April 2024.

“The UK LEI held steady in October, holding a pause from a downtrend that began in mid-2022,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “A significant positive contribution from housing sales expectation offset mild negatives from the unemployment claims, yield spread, and consumer expectations in October, while all other components were largely flat or slightly positive. The UK LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates are still negative, given the lengthy recent downtrend, but the pace of decline is much smaller. The LEI stabilization in recent months suggests that headwinds to growth are moderating, potentially reflecting the impact of the less restrictive monetary policy by the Bank of England. Overall, The Conference Board expects the UK economy to grow by about 0.9% for 2024 and pick up moderately to 1.3% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, January 17, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.