Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.1% in November 2024 to 160.3 (2016=100), following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in October. The LEI increased by 0.8% over the six-month period from May to November 2024, less than a third of the 3.0% growth between November 2023 and May 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, based on preliminary numbers, declined by 0.3% in November 2024 to 153.0 (2016=100), after increasing by 4.9% in October. The Index fell by 0.3% over the past six-month period ending in November 2024, a reversal from a substantial growth of 5.6% over the previous six months.

“The LEI for India gained more footing in November, building on a substantial upward revision of October reading,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The boost to the leading index came almost only from the bank credit to commercial sector. Both exports and stock prices made significant negative contributions to the Index, while the other components were largely unchanged. While the Index has regained momentum in the past couple months, it clearly slowed over the course of 2024. This suggests that after a disappointing GDP growth in Q3, the lowest in almost two years, India’s economy may continue to face obstacles ahead and likely not accelerate much going into 2025. As a result, the Conference Board lowered its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 6.4% (from 6.8%) and expects further softening to 6.0% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, January 23, 2025, at 9 A.M. ET.