Press Release
LEI for Spain Decreased in September
2023-11-09
About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:
The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain Decreased in September
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Spain decreased slightly by 0.2 percent in September 2023 to 94.4 (2016=100), following a 0.7 percent decrease in August. The LEI contracted by 1.8 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, a faster rate of decline than 0.6 percent over the previous six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain increased moderately by 0.2 percent in September 2023 to 109.6 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in August. The CEI grew by 0.9 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2023, a reversal from a decline of 0.8 percent over the previous six-month period.
“The LEI for Spain decreased slightly in September, and declined for a fourth consecutive month,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Over the past six months, components of the Spain LEI were weak across the board, except for a slight increase in equity prices. The continuing downward trajectory of the LEI signals headwinds to growth ahead, as the labor market cools, and inflation remains above target. The Conference Board projects Spanish real GDP growth to rise by 2.2 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will moderate to only 0.8 percent in 2024.”
The Spain LEI decreased slightly in September, and declined for the fourth consecutive month
Over the past six months, components of the Spain LEI were weak across the board, except for a slight increase in equity prices
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The downward trajectory of the Spain LEI caused the recession signal to flash for a second consecutive month Note: The chart illustrates the so-called 3D’s rule which is a reliable rule of thumb to interpret the duration, depth, and diffusion – the 3D’s – of a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long-lasting a decline in the index is, and depth denotes how large the decline is. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the last six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is (i.e., the diffusion index of the LEI ranges from 0 to 100 and numbers below 50 indicate most of the components are weakening). The 3D’s rule provides signals of impending recessions 1) when the diffusion index falls below the threshold of 50 (denoted by the black dotted line in the chart), and simultaneously 2) when the decline in the index over the most recent six months falls below the threshold of -1.9 percent. The red dotted line is drawn at the threshold value (measured by the median, -1.9 percent) on the months when both criteria are met simultaneously. Thus, the red dots signal a recession. |
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey , and Job Placement.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.
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