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Electric Vehicle Insights

Global EV Insights

17 October 2024 / Article

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Electric vehicle (EV) adoption might not significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the near term because there are only a few economies, such as China, where EVs make up more than half of new vehicle sales. This article provides an overview of the main success factors for and constraints to a thriving global EV industry.

Key Insights

  • Although global EV sales have accelerated in recent years because of falling battery and component prices, competition in several national automobile markets, and favorable economic conditions, EVs still only accounted for 3.2% of all vehicles globally in 2023.
  • Even if EV sales increased to nearly 100% of car sales within the next two decades, GHG emissions from transportation might fall only slowly because of the slow phaseout of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
  • China has established itself as the dominant EV producer globally, and low-cost EVs will likely put pressure on national economies and erode profit margins for domestic legacy manufacturers.
  • Despite temporary slowdowns in the US and EU due to market constraints, battery component origin requirements, and trade barriers, EV sales will continue to grow because of price parity with ICE vehicles and expanded charging networks in many national markets.

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption might not significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the near term because there are only a few economies, such as China, where EVs make up more than half of new vehicle sales. This article provides an overview of the main success factors for and constraints to a thriving global EV industry.

Key Insights

  • Although global EV sales have accelerated in recent years because of falling battery and component prices, competition in several national automobile markets, and favorable economic conditions, EVs still only accounted for 3.2% of all vehicles globally in 2023.
  • Even if EV sales increased to nearly 100% of car sales within the next two decades, GHG emissions from transportation might fall only slowly because of the slow phaseout of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
  • China has established itself as the dominant EV producer globally, and low-cost EVs will likely put pressure on national economies and erode profit margins for domestic legacy manufacturers.
  • Despite temporary slowdowns in the US and EU due to market constraints, battery component origin requirements, and trade barriers, EV sales will continue to grow because of price parity with ICE vehicles and expanded charging networks in many national markets.
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Authors

Alexander Heil, PhD

Alexander Heil, PhD Alexander Heil, PhD

Senior Economist, ESF Center
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Ioannis Siskos

Ioannis Siskos Ioannis Siskos

Senior Research Fellow, Environmental, Social & Go…
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Minji Xie

Minji Xie Minji Xie

Senior Researcher, China Center for Economics and …
The Conference Board

Read Bio

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