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Global Food Security Update May 12, 2023

May 12, 2023

Some major agricultural producers, including Russia and Canada, are reporting high production of grains. Brokered by the UN and Turkey last July, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has allowed for grain trapped by Russia’s invasion to be safely exported from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. With the second renewal of the Deal set to expire on May 18, the UN along with deputy defense ministers of Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey are engaging in talks to extend the deal.

  • Russia has seen record production of grains, and Canada’s production stands at 33.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 50.9 percent from last year’s 22.4 mmt. Rebound production in Canada and the northern plains of the US have eased production shortages from last year; however, price surges remain a risk in the months ahead.         
  • Drought remains a major issue for US winter wheat production, with 48 percent of production areas (mostly in the Plains) estimated to be in regions experiencing drought as of April 4.
  • The future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (set to expire on May 18) remains uncertain. Russia claims that the Initiative has not allowed its export of agricultural products (which are not under sanctions) and has said it will not extend the deal unless its list of demands is met. 

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Authors

Dr. Lori Esposito Murray

Dr. Lori Esposito Murray

Senior Fellow for National Security & Managing Director of CEO Programs

Read BioDr. Lori Esposito Murray

Mallory Block

Mallory Block

Public Policy Analyst

Read BioMallory Block

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