The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation rose 3.1% from a year earlier, vs. 3.2% y/y in September and 6.4% y/y at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.0% in November from a year earlier, vs. 4.0% y/y in October and 5.6% y/y at the beginning of the year. The Fed will be pleased with this print and will hold rates steady at the conclusion of the December FOMC meeting tomorrow. However, as Chair Powell said last month - future progress on inflation will be “lumpy” and “bumpy.” We expect the Fed to close in on its 2% y/y inflation target by the end of next year. We also expect the US economy to cool significantly in early 2024 under the weight of elevated interest rates. As such, the Fed is likely to start lowering rates in mid-2024 as a pace of 25 basis points per meeting. Headline CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.1% y/y, vs. October’s 0.0% m/m and 3.2% y/y. Shelter prices continued to rise in November, but a decline in gasoline prices kept the headline index from rising much. Energy commodity prices fell 5.8% m/m while used vehicle prices rose 1.6% m/m and transportation services rose 1.1% m/m. Meanwhile, food prices rose 0.2% m/m. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y, vs. October’s 0.2% m/m and 4.0% y/y. While shelter prices rose 0.4% m/m, this is down significantly from the rates recorded at the onset of 2023.Data Details
Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead® through publications, Conferences and events, webcasts, podcasts, data & analysis, and Member Communities.
Retail Sales Show Consumers Stock Up ahead of Tariffs
April 16, 2025
US Seeks Shipbuilding Revival, Muting of China Dominance
April 14, 2025
March CPI May Hint at Consumer Pullback as Tariffs Rise
April 10, 2025
The US-China Trade War Escalates
April 09, 2025