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For Release 9:30 AM ET, November 11, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined slightly by 0.1% in September 2024 to 75.2 (2016=100), reversing a 0.1% increase in August. The LEI for the UK contracted by 0.8% over the six-month period between March and September 2024, after contracting by 1.0% over the previous six-month period.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United Kingdom rose slightly by 0.1% in September 2024 to 106.0 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.3% in August. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 1.5% over the six-month period between March and September 2024, a reversal compared to the 0.1% contraction over the previous six-month period, from September 2023 to March 2024.
“The UK LEI ticked down in September,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The decline was driven by higher unemployment claims and the negative yield spread, as in previous months. Additionally, consumer’s assessments of future economic conditions, which had recovered in recent months, weakened in September. While the UK LEI’s six-month growth rate was unchanged in September, it has improved substantially since the beginning of the year as indicated by a lessening pace of decline. The annual growth rate of the LEI has also improved but remained negative. This suggests that headwinds to growth, while still present, are moderating. The recent rate cut by the Bank of England could help further lessen these headwinds and spur investment and consumer spending in 2025. Overall, The Conference Board expects the UK economy to slow somewhat in the second half of 2024, with annual GDP growth reaching 1% for the whole year, before picking up to 1.4% in 2025.”
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, December 12, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United Kingdom
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around eleven months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the U.K. are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
With graph and summary table
November 11, 2024
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