Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 1.0 percent in April 2022 to 169.7 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in March 2022. However, the LEI was still up by 2.0 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China decreased by 5.9 percent in April 2022 to 130.1 (2016=100), after a 2.3 percent decline in March 2022. The CEI contracted by 2.9 percent in the six-month period between October 2021 to April 2022.

“The China LEI declined for a second consecutive month in April pointing to increased risks to the economic outlook,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Restrictions due to the COVID-19 surge, global supply chain disruptions, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy, food, and metals prices are likely to slow economic growth in the near term. The coincident economic index, a measure of current economic conditions that tracks GDP, registered three consecutive monthly declines through April.”

China LEI declined again in April reflecting increasing headwinds from COVID-19 restrictions and the war in Ukraine

The recent trajectory of the China LEI points to slower economic growth amid increased risks from COVID-19 and the crisis in Ukraine

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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