Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France retreated by 0.2 percent in April 2023 to 118.1 (2016=100), a reversal from a 0.2 percent increase in March. The LEI grew by 0.5 percent in the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023, a slower pace than the 3.3 percent growth over the previous six-month period (April to October 2022).

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France ticked up by 0.1 percent in April 2023 to 109.8 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1 percent in March. The CEI grew by 0.7 percent during the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023, which is the same rate as the previous six-month period.

“Though reversing the previous month’s gain, in April the France LEI suggests continued positive, albeit more moderate growth ahead,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Over the past six months, weaknesses remain in non-financial components such as building permits, unemployment claims, orders for industrial goods, and production expectations. GDP growth in France remained positive in Q1 despite challenges in demand, sticky core inflation, and higher interest rates.  Still, The Conference Board predicts that real GDP growth will expand by 0.7 percent year-over-year in 2023, a slight downward revision from 0.8 percent.”

The France LEI retreated slightly in April 

Weaknesses remain dominant among non-financial components of the France LEI

France LEI suggests still positive, albeit moderating growth ahead 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org