Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, October 15, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany declined by 0.5% in August 2024 to 87.8 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2% in July. Over the six-month period between February and August 2024, the LEI for Germany contracted by 0.7%, still a slower rate of decline compared to the 3.7% contraction between August 2023 and February 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany rose by 0.3% in August 2024 to 104.0 (2016=100), reversing a 0.3% decrease in July. The CEI for Germany improved slightly by 0.1% from February to August 2024, after declining by 0.3% over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Germany declined in August, resuming its downtrend and reaching the lowest level since early 2010,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “August’s decline in the Index was led by the recent softening in consumer confidence, a continued negative contribution from the yield spread, and to a lesser extent, weaker stock prices and new residential construction orders. Although the components of the Germany LEI remained weak, when viewed on a longer-term basis, the pace of decline was much more muted than the downtrend seen in the previous two years. The Conference Board currently expects real GDP in Germany to remain fragile for the remainder of the year, with a second quarter of negative growth in Q3, pushing Germany into a technical recession. The German economy is expected to contract by 0.1% in 2024 and then rebound moderately by 0.7% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, November 15, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.