Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, October 23, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India declined by 0.1% in September 2024 to 159.0 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised flat reading in August. The LEI growth rate over the six-month period from March to September 2024 slowed to 1.1%, less than half the 2.7 % growth from September 2023 to March 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India fell significantly by 2.9% in September 2024 to 145.4 (2016=100), after falling by 0.7% in August. The Index rose by 1.9% from March to September 2024, more than reversing the contraction of 1.5% over the previous six months.

“The India LEI declined slightly in September,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “A strong negative contribution from PMI in services business activity, followed by the real effective exchange rate and merchandise exports, narrowly overturned positive contributions, largely from SENSEX stock prices. The six-month and annual growth rates of the LEI have been cooling over recent months, pointing towards softening through the end of 2024 and persisting into early 2025. Overall, The Conference Board continues to project India to remain the fastest growing large economy in 2024, with GDP growth reaching around 6.8% but moderating to 6.2% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 19, 2024, at 9 A.M. ET.

The momentum of the India LEI stalled in September

Negative contributions from services business PMI, the exchange rate, and merchandise exports fueled the slight decline of the LEI

Over 2024, the India LEI’s annual growth rate slowed slightly

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around eight months.

The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for India are:

• Interest Rate Spread
• BSE: Index: Monthly Average: SENSEX
• REER: 40 Currencies
• M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector
• Merchandise Exports (deflated by Wholesale Price Index)
• Cargo Handled
• Industrial Production: Capital Goods
• India PMI: Services Business Activity

The three components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Indiaare:

• Industrial Production
• Total Imports (deflated by Wholesale Price Index)
• Vehicle Sales, Passenger Vehicles

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org