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Downgraded global GDP forecast, but no recession expected
May 12, 2022 | Chart
After expanding by 5.9 percent in 2021, we expect global economic growth to slow to 2.9 percent this year, representing a downgrade of 1.0 percentage point from our February global economic outlook.
Even as the Ukraine war extends into a third month, we still do not anticipate the global economy will fall into recession this year or next. Nonetheless, the war is expected to weigh on growth, causing recessions in Ukraine, Russia, and potentially other regions.
Downgrades in the US and Europe largely reflect weaker-than-expected GDP figures for the first quarter, while our assumptions regarding the rest of the year remain largely unchanged since last month. This could change for Europe if a broad and sudden energy embargo comes into force, particularly with regards to natural gas.
The mature economies aggregate is downgraded to 2.6 percent growth for 2022. Growth for 2023 is also lowered slightly to 1.9 percent. Emerging economies aggregate growth is downgraded to 3.2 percent growth for 2022 and to 2.8 for 2023, reflecting downwardly adjusted forecasts for China and many other emerging economies including Russia, Turkey and economies in Africa.
For more information about our latest Global Economic Outlook, please visit our website.
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