The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June to 115.1 (2016 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in May and a 1.3 percent increase in April.
“June’s gain in the U.S. LEI was broad-based and, despite negative contributions from housing permits and average workweek, suggests that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While month-over-month growth slowed somewhat in June, the LEI’s overall upward trend—which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020—accelerated further in Q2. The Conference Board still forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 6.6 percent for 2021 and a healthy 3.8 percent for 2022.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in June to 105.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in May and a 0.1 percent increase in April.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in May at 105.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in May and 3.0 percent increase in April.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, August 19 at 10 A.M. ET.
For further information contact:
Jonathan Liu
732.991.1754
JLiu@tcb.org
With graph and summary table
July 22, 2021
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Continued to Fall in April
May 17, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell in March
April 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Inched Up in February
March 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Further in January
February 20, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the U.S. Inched Down in December
January 22, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
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