Consumer Dynamics Briefs

Retail spending in October rose $10.7 billion to $638.2 billion for the month – up 1.7 percent from the previous month and up 16.3 percent from a year earlier.

US consumer expectations as measured by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index ticked up in October, but this followed three months of declines. Did the declines signal recession in 2022 or just a hiccup related to the Delta variant? We propose the latter.

Comment on Personal Income & Outlays report for September – Erik Lundh, Principal Economist, The Conference Board

Retail spending in September rose $4.6 billion to $625.4 billion for the month – up 0.7 percent from the previous month and up 13.9 percent from a year earlier. These improvements were not merely a function of rising prices: adjusted for inflation, sales were up 0.3 percent month-over-month and 8.1 percent year-over-year. As the severity of the Delta wave continues to abate, these data suggest that American consumers still have an appetite to spend as we enter the last quarter of the year.

August Personal Income & Outlays data, released this morning, show an economy that continues to grow despite the impact of the Delta variant.

Retail spending in August surprised to the upside suggesting continued resiliency in consumption despite the COVID-19 Delta variant.

July Personal Income & Outlays data released this morning, show an economy that is still recovering. Amid shifting demand from goods to services spending, personal consumer expenditures growth slowed.

Comment on June Personal Income & Outlay data and the Q2 2021 Employee Cost Index – Erik Lundh, Principal Economist, The Conference Board & Gad Levanon, Vice President, Labor Markets, The Conference Board