China’s 2023 Central Economic Work Conference: Key Highlights and Implications

20 December 2023 / Report

On December 11-12, China's top leadership held the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference to discuss the state of the country's economy, review the government’s economic work, and set the direction of the economic policy agenda for 2024.

Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™

The top priority for the government’s economic work in 2024 is the stabilization of the Chinese economy. Similar to last year, this year’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) made it clear that the government will maintain a targeted and measured approach towards its stimulus measures to support growth as necessary, but without exacerbating systemic risks. We therefore do not expect to see a sudden uptick in growth levels, and this reinforces our view on the near-term growth outlook for China; we currently forecast GDP to grow by growth in 4.1% in 2024.
Central Government spending will likely prioritize key strategic areas and otherwise remain restrained. The official readout of the CEWC calls for the CPC and government agencies to adapt to tighter budgetary constraints, further strengthening the message that stimulus will remain targeted and moderated to support growth as necessary, but without exacerbating systemic risks.
Companies with high-tech capabilities and comparative advantages that can help address the development gaps in strategic sectors may benefit from more financial resources and increased regulatory hospitality, e.g. advanced and core technologies, green technologies, biotechnology, pharma, modern services, and advanced manufacturing.
The balancing of economic growth and national security considerations will remain an underlying policy priority. We should expect a continued emphasis on national security goals which, coupled with geopolitical developments in 2024, could increase the risk for MNCs to be caught in the crossfire of policy and regulatory moves.