Delta variant slowing US economic expansion

The Conference Board forecasts that US Real GDP growth will slow to 5.5 percent (annualized rate) in Q3 2021, vs. 6.6 percent growth in Q2 2021, and that 2021 annual growth will come in at 5.9 percent (year-over-year). This forecast is a downgrade from our August outlook and incorporates the larger-than-expected impact that the COVID-19 Delta variant has had on the US economy. In the short term, US consumption should continue to grow, though at a more muted rate due to Delta, and a meaningful expansion in private inventories will be delayed due to ongoing supply chain disruptions associated with the virus. Looking further ahead, we forecast that the US economy will grow by 3.8 percent (year-over-year) in 2022 and 3.0 percent (year-over-year) in 2023.

For more information about our latest US economic forecast, please visit our website (link).