Global Growth Projections for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2015

This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2015, including projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 22 emerging market economies for 2015, 2015-2019, and 2020-2025. The projections are based on a supply-side growth accounting model that estimates the contributions of the use of factor inputs – labor and capital – and productivity growth to the growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While labor input growth rates are estimated using information on demographic changes, capital input and total factor productivity growth are econometrically estimated using a wide range of related variables during past periods. The trend growth rates that are obtained from this exercise are adjusted for possible deviations between actual and potential output.