Policy Backgrounders

February 2024 CBO Budget and Economic Outlook

February 09, 2024

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™

This week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published its annual budgetary and economic projections for 2024 to 2034. CBO projects deficits to rise by $1 trillion over the next decade, bringing the national debt to a record level of 116% of GDP by 2034.

• The rising deficits are primarily driven by increased spending on Social Security and Medicare because of the long-term trends of an aging population and higher health care costs.
• Servicing the national debt also grows to historic levels over the next decade because of higher interest rates, which makes financing additional debt more expensive, crowding out national priorities in the federal budget. Growing deficits increase the national debt held by the public from 99% of GDP in 2024 to 116% of GDP in 2034.
• The national debt continues to rise over the next 20 years, reaching 172% of GDP by 2054.
• These projected increases in the deficit and national debt threaten the US’ economic outlook, underscoring the urgent need for bipartisan solutions to address this growing problem.