Policy Backgrounders

Proposals for Tariffs Enter the 2024 Election Debate

October 06, 2023

During the current campaign, a number of candidates for President have either endorsed imposition of tariffs, notably on China, or expressed openness to the idea. In some cases, this reflects continuing bipartisan support for the current tariffs on China, imposed in 2018, which the Administration has continued. This represents a major change from the traditional view against broad discriminatory tariffs that has largely prevailed in US trade policy since the end of the Second World War, including decades of negotiations under the former General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, US membership of the World Trade Organization, and the numerous free trade agreements that the US has around the world.

• The 2018 tariffs on China remain in place, despite a report from the US International Trade Commission showing harm to US consumers.
• Despite the evidence of harm to US consumers, tariffs on Chinese goods are popular; an August 2023 poll showed that 66 percent said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who “supports additional tariffs on Chinese imports.”
• A recent study for the Federal Reserve highlights the role of tariffs in promoting reallocation of supply chains—but also notes that even moving production to countries such as Vietnam and Mexico may not mean true decoupling from supply chains that depend on China.
• Supply chain shifts may also increase wage and cost pressures in the US, though not to the extent tariffs do.
• The shift towards greater political acceptability of tariffs is a worrying trend, one that could damage relations with close economic partners and violate US free trade agreements as well as reducing markets for US exporters significantly.