A sharp pullback in consumer spending in the beginning of the year, despite rising income, corroborates declining consumer confidence and supports our projections for economic growth to slow this year and for the next Fed move to be a rate cut.
Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®
Figure 1. Spending Growth Sharply Slows in Q1

Sources: Bureau of Economi
myTCB® Members get exclusive access to webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to events.
Hot October CPI Strengthens the Case for Further Fed Tightening
November 10, 2026
October FOMC Decision: Fed on Hold, But Not Done
October 28, 2026
Retail Sales Signal Healthy Q3 Consumer Spending
October 15, 2026
Hotter-than-Expected September CPI Reopens October Hike Debate
October 14, 2026
August PCE Portends Further Hikes Remain Likely
September 30, 2026
Charts
The Gray Swans Tool helps C-suite executives better navigate today’s quickly developing economic, political, and technological environments.
LEARN MORECharts
Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
LEARN MORECharts
How Might the World Fall Back into Recession?
LEARN MORECharts
Passing increases downstream, cutting costs, and absorbing price increases into profit margins are the chief ways to manage rising input costs. Few see changing
LEARN MORECharts
US continues to lead global productivity race
LEARN MORECharts
The Global Economic Fallout of the Ukraine Invasion
LEARN MORECharts
The global supply chain disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in production delays, shortages, and a spike in inflation in world.
LEARN MORECharts
The Conference Board recently released its updated 2022 Global Economic Outlook.
LEARN MORE
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Unchanged in September
November 12, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Spain Dipped in September
November 11, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Japan Edged Up in September 2026
November 10, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for South Korea Improved in September
November 09, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
The Global LEI Was Unchanged in September According to the Advanced Estimate
October 29, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for China Ticked Down in September
October 28, 2026
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for an environment with more challenges for labor and capital but improvements in productivity growth.
LEARN MOREConnect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
Hot October CPI Strengthens the Case for Further Fed Tightening
November 10, 2026 | Brief
Robust Employment Report Supports Further Fed Rate Hikes
November 06, 2026 | Brief
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
October 30, 2026 | Report
Q3 GDP Validates Fed’s “Strong” Assessment, Real Income Drop Augurs Slowdown
October 29, 2026 | Brief
October FOMC Decision: Fed on Hold, But Not Done
October 28, 2026 | Brief

Economy Watch: Leading Indicators & Leading Risks for the Year Ahead
November 12, 2026

The US Midterm Elections – “It’s the Economy, Stupid”
October 14, 2026

Economy Watch: The Global Economy at a Turning Point
September 09, 2026

USMCA 2.0—Trade Uncertainty in North America
June 10, 2026

Power Shifts: From the Fed to EV Markets
May 13, 2026