The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in April to 101.3 (1985=100), down from 104.0 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year—every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3—about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States—to April 19.
“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. “Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.”
“Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent—although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9 percent reached last year, it is still elevated. Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.”
Present Situation
Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions improved somewhat in April.
Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market improved slightly.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers became more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in April.
Consumers’ assessment about the short-term labor market outlook was less positive.
Consumers’ short-term income prospects was, on balance, somewhat more favorable.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 19.
Source: April 2023 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.ConferenceBoard.org
The next release is Tuesday, May 30 at 10 AM ET.
For further information contact:
Joseph DiBlasi
781.308.7935
JDiBlasi@tcb.org
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