Identification and Monitoring of Business Cycles in the Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council Region

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MENA

Insights from across the Middle East and North Africa

Identification and Monitoring of Business Cycles in the Economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council Region

June 15, 2015 | Report

In this paper, we propose a short-term “early warning system” based on coincident and leading economic indicators that help to track the short-term performance of the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The proposed indicators are classified as coincident and leading according to the “classical” business cycle definition. Based on these indicators, a chronology of the reference cycle for the regional economies is developed. The selected indicators are meant to assist in forecasting economic growth and major business cycle fluctuations. These indicators are organized in “scoreboards” that can be easily updated and monitored regularly. Such indicators should allow economists and analysts to improve their insights on the timing and speed of changes in the economic and business cycle conditions.