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10 December 2024 / Article
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Copy LinkThe Conference Board's real GDP forecast for the Global Economy was unchanged at 3.1% year-over-year for 2024 but ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to a still relatively healthy 3.0% in 2025. Our forecast for 2026 is 2.9%.
US economic activity is poised to moderate slightly over the coming quarters, but less than previously forecasted. US real GDP grew at a robust pace of 2.8% quarterly annualized in Q3 2024, largely due to outsized consumer spending. The healthy spending trend continued into Q4 2024 prompting an upgrade to the forecast for the final quarter of the year: from 0.9% to 2.0%. This raised the annual growth rate for 2024 from 2.6% to 2.7%.
Few signs that firms are willing to reduce payrolls suggest a healthy labor market in 2025 that should continue to support robust consumer spending and thereby real GDP growth. Against this backdrop the real GDP growth rate for 2025 is raised from 1.7% to 2.0%. Other changes to the 2025 GDP forecast include: upgrades to nonresidential investment as interest rates fall, upgrades to imports and inventories early in the year as companies rush to avoid potential tariffs, and reduced
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