US Leading Indicators

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year.

“The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.3 percent in June 2024 to 112.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in May. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the first half of 2024, about half its growth rate of 1.3 percent over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved in June, with industrial production making the largest positive contribution to the CEI for the second consecutive month.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. inched up by 0.1 percent in June 2024 to 119.5 (2016=100), partially reversing a decline of 0.2 percent in May. The LAG’s six-month growth rate rebounded to 1.2 percent over the first half of this year, substantially higher than its 0.3 percent increase over the second half of 2023.

The LEI’s year-over-year growth rate was negative but to a lesser degree compared to prior months