US Leading Indicators

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2024 to 101.2 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, the LEI fell by 2.0 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.4 percent contraction over the previous six months.

“The U.S. LEI fell again in May, driven primarily by a decline in new orders, weak consumer sentiment about future business conditions, and lower building permits,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “While the Index’s six-month growth rate remained firmly negative, the LEI doesn’t currently signal a recession. We project real GDP growth will slow further to under 1 percent (annualized) over Q2 and Q3 2024, as elevated inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on consumer spending.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.4 percent in May 2024 to 112.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in April. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the six-month period ending May 2024, down from its 1.0 percent increase over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month, with industrial production making the largest positive contribution to the Index.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. inched down by 0.1 percent in May 2024 to 119.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in April. As a result, the LAG’s six-month growth rate softened to 0.7 percent between November 2023 and May 2024, down from 0.8 percent over the previous six months.

The LEI’s year-over-year growth remained negative but continued trending upward