Consumers Take a Breather in January after Having Stocked Up
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Global Economic Outlook

Consumers Take a Breather in January after Having Stocked Up

14 February 2025 / Brief

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Retail sales for January showed consumers pulled back sharply from a robust pace of spending at the end of 2024, which was likely driven by consumers stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariffs. Still, solid fundamentals, namely strong growth in personal income and healthy balance sheets, will likely lead consumer spending to improve in the remainder of Q1.

Retail sales for January showed consumers pulled back sharply from a robust pace of spending at the end of 2024, which was likely driven by consumers stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariffs. Still, solid fundamentals, namely strong growth in personal income and healthy balance sheets, will likely lead consumer spending to improve in the remainder of Q1.

Figure 1. Retail Sales Plunge in January

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Sources: Census Bureau and The Conference Board.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • Despite the January pullback, we anticipate that strong consumption growth will continue into the beginning of the year, given the recent acceleration in consumer after tax, inflation adjusted income growth.
  • While services consumption will likely remain solid, we estimate it will be less robust in real terms as the year progresses. This is because a larger portion of income will be diverted towards more expensive imported goods and necessity services, such as property and auto insurance.
  • Continued health in the labor market and sticky inflation suggest the Fed may delay the next rate cut until later this

Author

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Yelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

Senior US Economist

Read BioYelena Shulyatyeva, CFA

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