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Quarterly updates on the outlook for the global economy from Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson
Central banks are engaged in a rough and tumble war against elevated inflation. Emerging markets entered the battle first with tighter monetary policy, and advanced/mature economies soon followed. While global inflation gauges appear to have peaked, they remain sticky, and it is not clear when key measures of consumer price inflation will fall back to their respective targets. Hence, central banks continue to tighten. While central banks may ultimately achieve their goal of vanquishing inflation, to do so may mean keeping interest rates higher than recent decades’ norms. There is also the risk that policymakers will struggle to maintain those targets unless corporations and governments work together to lean against current and future structural drivers of inflation.
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Charts
Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
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Charts
While a US recession appears to be imminent, it will not look like any other in recent history.
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Charts
CEOs’ views of current and future economic conditions remain pessimistic as they prepare for near-inevitable US and EU recessions.
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Charts
The US economy appears to be on the precipice of recession.
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Charts
Measure of CEO Confidence declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022 and has hit lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
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BRIEF
Inflation Heads in Wrong Direction for Fed
April 26, 2024
BRIEF
US Economic Growth Cooled in Q1 2024
April 25, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell in March
April 18, 2024
BRIEF
March retail sales rose, but real Q1 spending was lackluster
April 15, 2024
BRIEF
CPI remained stubbornly elevated in March
April 10, 2024
BRIEF
Employment Report Poses Some Risk to Fed Cut Timing
April 05, 2024
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