Global Economic Outlook 2025 to 2039: Opportunities, Caveats, and Uncertainties
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Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook 2025 to 2039: Opportunities, Caveats, and Uncertainties

12 November 2024 / Report

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Global growth is expected to slow over the next 10 years and beyond relative to the decade prior to the pandemic. This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for more challenging labor and capital environments but improvements in productivity growth.

Key Insights

  • The outlook for the global economy portends a more moderate growth environment over the next 15 years compared to prior decades.
  • Without intervention, the contributions to global growth from labor quantity will decrease as labor forces shrink—especially in many mature economies.
  • Capital deepening, which occurs when capital per worker is increasing in an economy, will be less intense around the world as several large emerging markets will mature and consumption of low-capital-intensity services and technology increase.
  • Total factor productivity (TFP) growth should improve and help to support growth, due to past investments in infrastructure and digital transformation and ongoing investments in new technologies and human capital.
  • Economic growth in both emerging and mature economies is set to slow, but emerging economies will continue to be the biggest drivers of economic expansion, with India outperforming China.

Global growth is expected to slow over the next 10 years and beyond relative to the decade prior to the pandemic. This report identifies trends to help businesses prepare for more challenging labor and capital environments but improvements in productivity growth.

Key Insights

  • The outlook for the global economy portends a more moderate growth environment over the next 15 years compared to prior decades.
  • Without intervention, the contributions to global growth from labor quantity will decrease as labor forces shrink—especially in many mature economies.
  • Capital deepening, which occurs when capital per worker is increasing in an economy, will be less intense around the world as several large emerging markets will mature and consumption of low-capital-intensity services and technology increase.
  • Total factor productivity (TFP) growth should improve and help to support growth, due to past investments in infrastructure and digital transformation and ongoing investments in new technologies and human capital.
  • Economic growth in both emerging and mature economies is set to slow, but emerging economies will continue to be the biggest drivers of economic expansion, with India outperforming China.
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Authors

Dana M. Peterson

Dana M. Peterson Dana M. Peterson

Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Fi…
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global
The Conference Board

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Konstantinos Panitsas

Konstantinos Panitsas Konstantinos Panitsas

Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Maria Demertzis

Maria Demertzis Maria Demertzis

Economy, Strategy and Finance Center Leader, Europ…
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Fiona Liu

Fiona Liu Fiona Liu

Economist
The Conference Board

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