Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, rose by 1.0 percent in November 2023 to 120.7 (2016=100), partially reversing a decline of 1.2 percent in October. The LEI grew by 2.4 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2023, following an increase of 1.9 percent over the previous six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, increased by 0.9 percent in November 2023 to 111.7 (2016=100), marking the sixth consecutive month of increase. As a result, the CEI grew by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2023, after growing at a rate of 1.7 percent over the previous six-months.

“The Brazil LEI increased in November after declining in the previous month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The majority of the components improved, with stock prices driving the increase in the index, followed by much smaller contributions from the swap rate and the Expectation Index from the manufacturing sector survey. Although the LEI continued to present robust growth on a six-month basis, the contribution of worsening business confidence may weigh on near-term growth. The Conference Board forecasts that real GDP in Brazil will expand by 3.2 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will moderate to just percent growth in 2024.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI rose in November

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

Despite the LEI remaining resilient on a six-month basis, the business expectations and durable goods indexes worsened

The annual growth rate of the Brazil LEI is still positive, but volatility in underlying conditions present uncertainty ahead

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre