Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany remained unchanged in February 2022 at 97.9 (2016=100), after rising 0.7 percent in January 2022. However, the LEI declined by 0.9 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent in February 2022 to 103.7 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent rise in January 2022. The CEI grew by 0.9 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

“The February LEI for Germany suggests slower economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “A large negative contribution from consumer confidence was offset by improving new orders and the yield spread. However, these latest results do not fully reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine, which will likely result in slower-than-anticipated economic growth in the first half of the year.”

The LEI was unchanged in February suggesting slower growth. The economy will face headwinds from war in the Ukraine.

The recent trajectory of the Germany LEI points to continued, though slower, economic growth, with increasing downside risks from the war in Ukraine.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

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