Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.2 percent in May 2022 to 92.2 (2016=100), following a 1.0 percent decrease in April. The LEI also declined by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, a smaller decline than the 4.8 percent change over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan decreased by 0.8 percent in May 2022 to 99.0 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in April. The CEI contracted by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, a slightly deeper contraction than the 0.2 percent decline between May and November 2021.

“The Japan LEI decreased again in May pointing to continued slow economic growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “High inflation and monetary policy tightening around the world continue to pose downside risks to global economic growth. Against this backdrop, uncertainty in energy markets, and global trade disruptions, The Conference Board projection for year-over-year real GDP growth for Japan was downgraded to 1.9 percent from 2.2 percent in 2022.”

The trajectory of the Japan LEI suggests downside risks are rising

Housing construction and business expectations dragged the Japan LEI lower

The Japan LEI points to slow economic growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

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About The Conference Board

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