Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 0.7 percent in December 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 1.6 percent in November. The LEI rose by 0.8 percent in the second half of 2023, following an increase of 3.1 percent in the first half of the year.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 107.8 (2016=100), partially reversing an increase of 0.6 in November. Over the second half of 2023, the CEI rose by 0.3 percent, less than the increase of 0.9 percent over the first half of last year.

“The South Korea LEI increased in December for the second consecutive month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The December gain was driven by positive contributions from all components of the index except for private construction orders and value of machinery orders. While the LEI for Korea has been volatile on a month-to-month basis, in December, it was growing above its long-term trend suggesting an improvement to the economic outlook for Korea. This is in line with The Conference Board current forecast of year-over-year GDP growth accelerating from 1.4 percent in 2023 to 2.0 percent in 2024”.

The South Korea LEI Increased in December

Financial components and inventories drove the increase in the LEI in December

The annual growth rate of the LEI continued its upward trajectory, signaling easing of headwinds to economic activity

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org