Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2023 to 105.2 (2016=100) from an upwardly revised 105.4 in September. The LEI rose by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, following an increase of 0.2 percent from October 2022 to April 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea fell by 0.9 percent in October 2023 to 107.1 (2016=100), following increases of 0.3 and 1.2 in September and August, respectively. Over the period between April and October 2023, the CEI rose by 0.4 percent, after a decrease of 0.2 percent over the previous six-month period.

“After a slight increase in September, the LEI for South Korea fell, erasing the previous month’s gain,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The decline was led by financial components and the index of inventories to shipments, which more than offset the positive contributions from real exports FOB, private construction orders, and the value of machinery orders. With uncertainty in global growth and recent data indicating mixed economic conditions in Korea, there remain headwinds to economic growth. The most recent inflation reading eased, but the Bank of Korea plans to maintain its restrictive monetary policy tack to tame inflationary pressures, which will continue to constrain growth in the near term. The Conference Board expects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.3 percent for 2023, and a forecasted rate of 1.9 percent in 2024."

The South Korea LEI Decreased in October

The October decrease in the LEI was led by financial components

The annual growth rate of the LEI moved into positive territory, and if the trend continues, it may signal easing of headwinds to growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org