Global Economic Outlook 2024 to 2036: China Edition
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Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook 2024 to 2036: China Edition

28 November 2023 / Report

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Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™ 

  • We forecast China’s real GDP to expand by 5.2 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024. However, there are several important near-term downside risks to monitor: the ongoing property downturn; persistent consumer confidence weakness and related weak spending; and deteriorating external demand.
  • Looking forward, the potential at which the Chinese economy could grow were labor and capital are employed at their maximum rates will slow down from an average of 4.1 percent per year between 2025 and 2030 to 3.7 percent between 2031 and 2036. This slowdown in potential economic growth is normal for economies that are maturing. 
  • China is also likely to enter a prolonged period of below-potential growth as it deals with deep-rooted structural imbalances, and because of the impact of geopolitical tensions. These are not only constraining consumption and capital growth, but could also severely damage China’s innovation capabilities, and therefore total factor productivity performance.
  • Enduring business success in China will require a business strategy review and reset to embrace difficult market conditions, set appropriate growth and profitability targets, and optimize competitiveness vis-à-vis home market competitors. (see The Upsides of Economic Downside in China).

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™ 

  • We forecast China’s real GDP to expand by 5.2 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024. However, there are several important near-term downside risks to monitor: the ongoing property downturn; persistent consumer confidence weakness and related weak spending; and deteriorating external demand.
  • Looking forward, the potential at which the Chinese economy could grow were labor and capital are employed at their maximum rates will slow down from an average of 4.1 percent per year between 2025 and 2030 to 3.7 percent between 2031 and 2036. This slowdown in potential economic growth is normal for economies that are maturing. 
  • China is also likely to enter a prolonged period of below-potential growth as it deals with deep-rooted structural imbalances, and because of the impact of geopolitical tensions. These are not only constraining consumption and capital growth, but could also severely damage China’s innovation capabilities, and therefore total factor productivity performance.
  • Enduring business success in China will require a business strategy review and reset to embrace difficult market conditions, set appropriate growth and profitability targets, and optimize competitiveness vis-à-vis home market competitors. (see The Upsides of Economic Downside in China).
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Authors

Alfredo Montufar-Helu

Alfredo Montufar-Helu Alfredo Montufar-Helu

Head of the China Center
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Anke Schrader

Anke Schrader Anke Schrader

Former Research Director, Asia
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Tianjun Wu

Tianjun Wu Tianjun Wu

Former Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Fiona Liu

Fiona Liu Fiona Liu

Economist
The Conference Board

Read Bio

Minji Xie

Minji Xie Minji Xie

Senior Researcher, China Center for Economics and …
The Conference Board

Read Bio

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