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26 March 2024 / Brief
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The Conference Board raised its China real GDP forecasts for 2024 in March. We now project growth of 4.6% for this year, up from 4.1% previously.
The upgrade in the forecast stems from the Chinese Government’s decision to issue RMB 1 trillion in special treasury bonds with ultralong maturities this year at the recently concluded Two Sessions meaning that there will be more fiscal stimulus to support the economy than we previously anticipated. The bonds proceeds will be used to fund mega projects and support strategic sectors. The government has also declared that it will continue issuing such bonds over the coming years. While authorities issued an additional RMB 1 trillion in special treasury bonds late last year, this was thought to be a one-off, plus the proceeds were used to fund post-disaster recovery and reconstruction projects. China has reportedly only used ultralong special treasury bonds three times in its history, to support its econo
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