Global Economy Briefs
2021
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Wage, income, spending and inflation data all point to continued recovery while pushing against supply constraints
July 30 | Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, Global, The Conference Board | Comments (0)Comment on June Personal Income & Outlay data and the Q2 2021 Employee Cost Index – Erik Lundh, Principal Economist, The Conference Board & Gad Levanon, Vice President, Labor Markets, The Conference Board
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Lower than expected economic growth remained high, but highlights uncertainty
July 29 | Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, Global, The Conference Board | Comments (0)US Real Gross Domestic Product grew by 6.5 percent (annualized) during the second quarter of 2021, below the consensus forecast of 9.1 percent* and The Conference Board’s forecast of 9.0 percent. This quarterly annualized growth rate was up slightly from the 6.3 percent rate seen in Q1 2021, when the economic recovery began to reaccelerate following a difficult winter.
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Fed Holds Policy Line But Leaves Taper Door Open
July 29 | Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Finance Center, The Conference Board | Comments (0)The Fed held interest rates and large-scale asset purchase amounts steady at the July 28th FOMC meeting. However, policymakers left the door open for changing its tack on when tapering, and ultimately rate hikes, might begin given noted improvement in the US economy.
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Strong Job Gains in June, But Participation Still Disappoints
July 02 | Frank Steemers, Former Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)Commentary on June U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report by Frank Steemers, Senior Economist, The Conference Board
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May PCE Reaction: Spending Patterns Shift, but Inflation Remains
June 25 | Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, Global, The Conference Board | Comments (0)May income, spending and inflation data reveal an economy that is shifting back to pre-pandemic patterns as the threat of COVID-19 abates. Following the distribution of government stimulus checks in March US personal income dipped for a second month in May.
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Fed Policy Reaction - FOMC Participants Blink
June 16 | Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Finance Center, The Conference Board | Comments (0)Fed officials accelerated expectations of rate hikes amid robust, albeit heavily policy supported, GDP growth and a strengthening labor market.
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Labor Shortages Are Becoming More Severe
June 08 | Gad Levanon, PhD, Former Vice President, Labor Markets, The Conference Board | Comments (0)Three new reports suggest that labor shortages are becoming more extreme, having material implications for labor market recovery and short-term inflation prospects.
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Tepid Job Gains Highlight Hiring Difficulties
June 04 | Frank Steemers, Former Senior Economist, The Conference Board | Comments (0)Commentary on today’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report by Frank Steemers, Senior Economist, The Conference Board
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April PCE Reaction: Inflation Creeps Higher as Consumers Shift to Services
May 28 | Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, Global, The Conference Board | Comments (0)April income, spending and inflation data reveal an economy that is on the mend, but not yet fully recovered.
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Job openings at a record high, and labor shortages are back
May 11 | Gad Levanon, PhD, Former Vice President, Labor Markets, The Conference Board | Comments (0)Despite still-elevated unemployment rates, and 8.2 million persons waiting to be added to payrolls, labor shortages are back. As large segments of the economy continue to open at the same time, and labor supply is constrained, these shortages are likely to remain for the better part of 2021.
