The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in February

February ETI Declines Amid Uncertainty

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The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in February to 108.56, from an upwardly revised 109.45 in January. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI fell in February to its lowest level since October,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “Growing policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on business and consumer sentiment, with more substantial impacts from federal layoffs and funding disruptions expected in the months ahead.”

The share of consumers who report ‘jobs are hard to get’—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—rose 1.8 percentage points in February. The share of small firms that report jobs are ‘not able to be filled right now’ rose from 35% to 38%, its largest monthly increase in nearly a year. These trends reflect modest declines in perceived labor market strength despite measures of economic activity remaining stable, including Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Industrial Production.

“While recently announced federal and private-sector layoffs weren’t fully captured in February’s Employment Report, several ETI components show potential early-warning signs of wavering conditions,” Barnes continued. Initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 3.4% in February to 224,000. The share of involuntary part-time workers rose from 16.7% in January to 18% in February—its highest level since 2021. Employment in the temporary-help industry also declined, with total temp job losses of 22,000 over January and February.

Added Barnes, “The jobs market remains healthy overall, but risks of a slowdown in the hiring environment are emerging. Uncertainty is likely to make employers more cautious and, if prolonged, could portend more pronounced labor market weakness in the coming months. Despite a resilient end to 2024, momentum in the US labor market is clearly at risk of fading.”

February’s decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from five of its eight components: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (US Bureau of Labor Statistics), Percentage of Respondents Who Say “Jobs Are Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®), Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (US Department of Labor), Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics), and the Percentage of Firms with Jobs Not Able to Fill Right Now (NFIB Research Foundation®).

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ™, November 1973 to Present

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)***
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
***Note that Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results do not release until March 11th, 2025. The forecasted result from January is used to forecast February.

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm. 

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Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2025 Publication Schedule