Loading...
Timely insights from the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center
Upward surprises in both month-over-month and year-over-year Headline and Core CPI measures in January will likely contribute to keeping the Fed firmly on hold in the coming months. In his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank remains resolute to bring inflation down to its 2% inflation target.
Yet, the January hot inflation print is not as bad underneath the surface as it may look at a first glance. While seasonality issues may be boosting the January readings, making inflation sticky, inflation remains on a downward trend.
Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®™
Hotter-than-expected January CPI suggests the Fed will likely remain on hold in the coming months.
Increases in the usual suspects, such as auto insurance, boosted the month-over-month print. Meanwhile rising lodging away from home and used car prices have exacerbated the rise in the January CPI. These increases may have been driven by the impact of California wildfires and should subside in future readings.
Incorporating the usual impact on the January print as firms reset non-seasonally adjusted prices in the beginning of the year, which may not be fully captured by the seasonal factors, may result in overestimating inflation in January.
Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead® through publications, Conferences and events, webcasts, podcasts, data & analysis, and Member Communities.
Retail Sales Show Consumers Stock Up ahead of Tariffs
April 16, 2025
US Seeks Shipbuilding Revival, Muting of China Dominance
April 14, 2025
March CPI May Hint at Consumer Pullback as Tariffs Rise
April 10, 2025
The US-China Trade War Escalates
April 09, 2025
Charts
Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
LEARN MORE
Charts
How Might the World Fall Back into Recession?
LEARN MORE
Charts
Passing increases downstream, cutting costs, and absorbing price increases into profit margins are the chief ways to manage rising input costs. Few see changing
LEARN MORE
Charts
Downgraded global GDP forecast, but no recession expected
LEARN MORE
Charts
US continues to lead global productivity race
LEARN MORE
Charts
The Global Economic Fallout of the Ukraine Invasion
LEARN MORE
Charts
The global supply chain disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in production delays, shortages, and a spike in inflation in world.
LEARN MORE
Charts
The Conference Board recently released its updated 2022 Global Economic Outlook.
LEARN MORE
READ
WATCH
LISTEN
Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for France Improved in February
April 18, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the Euro Area Declined in March
April 17, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Declined in March
April 17, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Unchanged in February
April 16, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the UK Decreased in February
April 15, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Ticked Up in March
April 15, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Global growth is expected to slow over the next decade relative to the prior ten years.
LEARN MORE
Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the Euro Area Economy
April 09, 2025 | Report
April 09, 2025 | Article
The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy
April 04, 2025 | Article
Reciprocal Tariffs Will Weaken US and Global Economies
April 03, 2025 | Brief
Fed Keeps Cutting Bias amid “Transitory” Tariff Inflation
March 19, 2025 | Brief
February CPI Offers Some Reprieve
March 12, 2025 | Brief
Economy Watch: US Public Policy and the Economy
April 09, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)
US Economic Volatility in 2025
February 12, 2025 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China
December 11, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The 2025 Global Economic Outlook
November 13, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
The Economic Outlook for Europe
July 12, 2023 11:00 AM ET (New York)
Email
Linkedin
Facebook
Twitter
Copy Link
