Welcome to the Soft Landing: Implications for the Economy & Business
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Welcome to the Soft Landing: Implications for the Economy & Business

/ Report

Equity markets plunged and financial market volatility spiked at the start of August.

A host of factors—including a worsening tech stock correction, surprise BoJ actions, Fed-speak, US recession fears, rising geopolitical risks, and thin summer trading—collided to create several days of financial market turmoil.

Was this a negative overreaction to a confluence of loosely related events or a flashpoint for worse things to come? We think this may be what a soft landing looks like.

Follow our ongoing coverage: track timelines, understand key drivers, review new forecasts, and discover risks and probable outcomes ahead.

Equity markets plunged and financial market volatility spiked at the start of August.

A host of factors—including a worsening tech stock correction, surprise BoJ actions, Fed-speak, US recession fears, rising geopolitical risks, and thin summer trading—collided to create several days of financial market turmoil.

Was this a negative overreaction to a confluence of loosely related events or a flashpoint for worse things to come? We think this may be what a soft landing looks like.

Follow our ongoing coverage: track timelines, understand key drivers, review new forecasts, and discover risks and probable outcomes ahead.

Updated August 12, 2024

Blip or Signal?

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™

  • The burst of equity market volatility that led to a financial market meltdown in early August was caused by a variety of largely unrelated factors converging at a time of great uncertainty for investors.
  • A decline in potentially overvalued tech stocks appears to have been accelerated by a cacophony of troubling news about regional conflicts and political unrest across the globe, unexpected soundings and actions by central banks, and mixed readings on US economic data.
  • Incoming US data likely will reveal slower economic activity over the balance of this year consistent with a meaningful period of ultrarestrictive Fed monetary policy in reaction to several years of elevated inflation.
  • However, fears of an impending US recession are likely overdone given limited information to date suggesting the economy is hea
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Authors

Dana M. Peterson

Dana M. Peterson Dana M. Peterson

Chief Economist and Leader, Economy, Strategy & Fi…
The Conference Board

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Markus Schomer

Markus Schomer Markus Schomer

Senior Economist, Finance, Risk and Strategy
The Conference Board

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Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global
The Conference Board

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Mitchell Barnes

Mitchell Barnes Mitchell Barnes

Economist, Labor Markets
The Conference Board

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