-
Email
Linkedin
Facebook
Twitter
Copy Link
Insights for What’s Ahead On the economy, Chair Powell said that growth was “solid to strong” in 2023 but that he expects it to moderate. Overall, he sounded pleased about developments in the labor market, which he described as softening but strong. Powell said that the 12 month inflation rate remains well above where it needs to be, but that it has slowed substantially over the last six months. He stated that the Fed is confident that inflation is moving toward 2%. Even with this progress the Fed is not ready to begin scaling back tight monetary policy. Chair Powell said that the decision to begin making cuts is highly consequential and the Fed is in “risk management” mode. The Fed is concerned that loosening policy too soon or too quickly could hamper additional progress on inflation or even reverse it. Indeed, the FOMC statement said that the Fed needs “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” before it begins to make cuts. On timing, no clear guidance was provided about when policy will begin to loosen. The Fed remains data dependent, per Powell. However, he did say that it is unlikely that the FOMC would decide to cut rates at its next meeting in March. Powell also said that the Fed’s balance sheet runoff would continue, but that an “in-depth discussion” of the balance sheet would occur at the next meeting. Today’s actions were unanimously approved by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Highlights
Cutting Discretionary Spending to Offset Higher Prices
March 28, 2025
Auto Makers Hit a Tariff Speedbump
March 27, 2025
Administration acts with Congress to reverse methane fee
March 25, 2025
Fed Keeps Cutting Bias amid “Transitory” Tariff Inflation
March 19, 2025
Retail Sales Show Consumers Are More Frugal amid Uncertainty
March 17, 2025
The EU's Retaliatory Tariffs Will Hit Beef, Bourbon and More
March 14, 2025
Charts
Preliminary PMI indices show no change in weak DM growth momentum in November
LEARN MORECharts
Members of The Conference Board can access all underlying data of the Job Loss Risk Index by Industry in this Excel workbook.
LEARN MORECharts
While a US recession appears to be imminent, it will not look like any other in recent history.
LEARN MORECharts
CEOs’ views of current and future economic conditions remain pessimistic as they prepare for near-inevitable US and EU recessions.
LEARN MORECharts
The US economy appears to be on the precipice of recession.
LEARN MORECharts
Measure of CEO Confidence declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022 and has hit lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
LEARN MOREPRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell in March
April 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Little Changed in March
March 26, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Inched Up in February
March 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Consumer Confidence Retreated in February
February 27, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Further in January
February 20, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
CEO Confidence Improved in Q1 2024
February 08, 2024