Global Economic Outlook

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 1.2 percent in April 2023 to 105.1 (2016=100), after a 0.3 percent increase in March. However, the LEI improved by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, a partial reversal of the 3.0 percent decrease from April to October 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea also declined by 1.0 percent in April 2023 to 106.0 (2016=100), more than offsetting the 0.8 percent increase in March. The CEI declined 0.8 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, a slightly larger rate of decline than the 0.7 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea fell sharply in April, partially reversing improvements posted over the previous three months,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “All non-financial components contributed to April’s decline, signaling worsening growth prospects in the real economy. While financial components rose, the improvement in stock prices and bond yields (inverted) was not enough to offset the weakness in construction and manufacturing components. Softening demand in China and the United States may weigh on South Korea’s economy in the coming months. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth to slow to 1.2 percent in 2023, down from 2.6 percent in 2022.”

The Korea LEI and CEI both fell in April

Declines in the LEI were led by non-financial components

The LEI continues to signal slowing economic growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/  

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org