June 17, 2022 | Report
The indicator approach was originated in the mid-1930s by economists at the United States’ National Bureau of Economic Research. Their research explored cyclical patterns of economic fluctuations that consist of expansions (periods of positive growth in general economic activity) followed by recessions (contractions in economic activity), which then merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle. Leading indicators are series that tend to shift direction in advance of the business cycle; for this reason, they receive the lion’s share of attention. Coincident indicators, such as employment and production, are broad series that measure aggregate economic activity; thus, they define the business cycle. Since no single time series fully qualifies as an ideal cyclical indicator, it is important to analyze groups of indicators and to look for consistent or common patterns. The leading and coincident economic composite indexes are useful summary measures of the cyclical indicators because, as averages, they tend to smooth out much of the volatility of individual series. A coincident economic index usually turns at the same time as the general economy. It also rises and falls at about the same pace as the gross domestic product (GDP). A leading economic index typically declines before recessions, yet sometimes gives a false signal, usually associated with major growth slowdowns that don’t turn into full blown recessions.
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Fell in October
November 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Declined in September
October 21, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® Inched Down Further in August
September 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Declined in July
August 19, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Slightly in June
July 18, 2024
PRESS RELEASE
US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Again in May
June 21, 2024
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indic…
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued t…
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US dropped 4.4 percent in April, following a decline of 7.4 percent in March.
LEARN MORETechnical Notes for the US LEI
November 21, 2024 | Guide & Reference
August US leading index points to continued economic growth
September 23, 2021 | Chart
US LEI improving, but recession signal remains
September 24, 2020 | Chart
LEI points to a deep recession with no sign of fast rebound
May 21, 2020 | Chart
The Long-term Economic Outlook for the US, Europe, and China
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The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
What Are The Conference Board LEIs Telling Us About the Future?
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Inflation, Labor Markets, and the Fed
May 11, 2022 11:00 AM ET (New York)